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From Michael Kahn who writes the bi-weekly “Getting Technical” column for Barron's Online. He was formerly Chief Technical Analyst for Bridge News and a regular on such financial programs as PBS’ Nightly Business Report, Yahoo Finance Vision and WebFN...
Cycles say that's it for now
Wednesday, October 10, 2007
http://michaelkahn.tripod.com/blog/index.blog?start=1192810559
Here is another chart from the Foundation for the Study of Cycles showing a study they ran in August. They asked the question, "Did you know to get out of the way?" Apparently they did and it worked nicely. 
What struck me about this chart was its beautiful prediction of the rally that followed , both in terms of points and time. Could it be that the market is about to sell off starting a little later this month? And if it does, will it get back to the trough of the August credit crunch panic?
Food for thought, that's for sure. Don't be surprised to see this chart or something like this in an upcoming Barron's Online piece once I do some more research on the topic. After all, we don't know what this prediction looked like prior to what is shown. Anyone can stick out a lucky guess, although knowing what I know about cycles work I would venture to say that luck was not involved here. Accuracy is the issue so stay tuned.
From Business Wire & Gale Group...
The Foundation for the Study of Cycles to Release its First Windows-Based Software for Discovering and Predicting Cycles in Nature and Economics
Business Wire, Oct 26, 2005
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0EIN/is_2005_Oct_26/ai_n15754815
ALBUQERQUE, N.M. -- The Foundation for the Study of Cycles announced today the general availability of its first Windows-based software adapted and developed to use its proprietary, patent-pending algorithms for discovering cycles in nature and the affairs of humankind. The software, available for pre-release purchase as of Oct. 23, has an official publication date of Jan. 10, 2006, the Foundation's 65th anniversary. "FSC Techsignal" software will also enable the user to project future cycles to predict the probabilities of similar occurrences before they happen. Free registration for information and demonstration of the new software is available at http://www.techsignal.com.
With our current events of immense importance to humanity, such as suicide bombers, the war on terrorism and the recent natural disasters of Katrina, Rita and Wilma, the release of this software could represent one of the most important milestones in the history of the social sciences," said David M. Perales, president of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles. "This software represents the study of cycles at its finest, 'the science of prediction,' and this type of research, including disaster forecasting and planning, is clearly imperative at this time in history. Cycles in natural and human events are not only real, they are inevitable. Knowledge of cycles can help us, but the ignorance of them will harm us. Just ignoring cycles inherent in events will not make them go away."
FSC Techsignal software is based on the unique approach developed by the Foundation for mainframes in the 1950s and improved during the next half century with many new, powerful features as a result of advances of the computer age. For the last decade, the Foundation has been refining its methods of cycles detection and studies of cycles applications almost exclusively in the financial markets, due to readily available and accurate data.
About the Foundation for the Study of Cycles
A non-profit 501(c) (3) research organization, the Foundation for the Study of Cycles was incorporated in Connecticut on Jan. 10, 1941, by Edward R. Dewey, former chief economic analyst for the U.S. Department of Commerce, following support from President Herbert Hoover, who hoped to determine what had caused the Great Depression. This government assignment led to Dewey's discovery of coincident "cycles" in nature and business, and, since then, the Foundation has made studies of thousands of verified natural, social, and financial cycles. The Foundation has been the leading developer of computer software to detect cycles in time series data. Throughout the years, Foundation researches have been generously backed by such notable investment moguls as W. Clement Stone, Fidelity Funds, the Coleman Co. and Paul Tudor Jones. More information is available by visiting http://foundationforthestudyofcycles.org.
COPYRIGHT 2005 Business Wire
COPYRIGHT 2005 Gale Group
From The Foundation For The Study Of Cycles...
Walter Bressert Returns to FSC Register for Webinar
Walter, who is credited with bringing cycles into the futures markets, became interested in cycles in the late 1960s. He studied everything available at the time, including volumes of information published by the Foundation for the Study of Cycles, and Jim Hurst's classic book on cycles, "The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing." He also attended several of Jim's workshops. Walter was a trader, and in applying the concepts from Hurst's book and workshops, and the Foundation, he realized that something was missing. There was plenty of theory on how to use cycles, but no quantification, or structure, that would allow him to trade the markets cyclically with confidence.
He researched the historical performance of the markets, focusing on quantifying the cycles and combining cycles with price performance, including Fibonacci relationships of time and price. He studied the works of Edwards and Magee, W.D. Gann, Gartley and R.N. Elliott, blending the timing of cycles with the best of the works of others who had studied the market in-depth. It was at this time Walter began using a combination of oscillators and Timing Bands, which compensates for the tendency of cycles to contract and extend. The result of his extensive research was the Bressert Method of Cycle Analysis. Much of the terminology used by cycle analysts today originates with the terminology Walter used to describe cyclic activity for specific cycles that he isolated over 25 years ago. This method, greatly improved by the addition of Oscillator/Cycle Combinations, is still traded today by many who learned it in the 70s and 80s.
In 1974, he began publishing the HAL Commodity Cycles newsletter to make this information available to other traders. Focusing on the futures markets, HAL quickly grew to become one of the largest and most popular newsletters in the business. As Futures magazine stated - "He gets the readership he deserves because he is right so often."
In 1976, at the request of his subscribers, he began teaching workshops on trading cycles using the Bressert Method. Over the years he has taught thousands of commodity traders, brokers and money managers in the U.S., Europe and Asia how to use cycles to improve their timing.
Walter had been working with oscillators for many years before he joined with Tim Slater in 1979 to build CompuTrac, the first computerized market analysis program available to the public.
After publishing HAL Commodity Cycles for 12 years, of which 10 of the 12 years were profitable, he retired in 1985. In 1990, he saw the need for a book on combining oscillators and cycles, and published "The Power of Oscillator/Cycle Combinations" in 1991. (This book is now outdated with the advent of computerized analysis).
From 1991 through 1995, he published the CycleWatch newsletter, which forecast time and price moves weeks and months into the future in the S&P Index, Bonds, Precious Metals, Currencies and the Agricultural markets. CycleWatch was available as a daily fax-on-demand, and via DBC Signal, FutureLink and DTN. Walter's trading recommendations were also featured on the Futures magazine AllStar Advisor's Hotline.
In 1994, Walter developed award-winning software that over the years has evolved into his current software ProfitTrader. Based on his timing methodology, ProfitTrader identifies trend and trend reversals, plus generates mechanical BUY/SELL signals. Today, as editor and publisher of the WB Intraday Review & Forecaster and WB Trades OnLine, he provides daily commentary and trade recommendations on the S&P 500. His recommendations and forecasts are instructional so traders can learn the "how and why" to make their own trading decisions.
The Timing Bands he built for the markets in the early 70s are still valid and much improved. The addition of oscillators and his techniques to enhance oscillator performance greatly improve the ability of anyone - beginner or expert - to trade tops and bottoms of cycles as they are occurring . The real key to trading with cycles is to first identify trend direction, then buy bottoms if the trend is up, and sell tops if the trend is down. The interaction of cycles within cycles shows specific patterns that help identify trend reversals as they are occurring, and in iday trading it is these trend reversals that are often followed by the big intraday moves.
Walter was a director and president of the non-profit Foundation for the Study of Cycles. He has lectured internationally for more than twenty years and written articles for the Wall Street Journal, Barron's, Futures magazine and the "Commodity Research Bureau Yearbook". He was a contributing editor to the Financial News Network and has appeared on CNBC from time-to-time as a guest speaker.
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